More detail;
If hearts are 3-3 we are probably making this but if they are 4-2 we are limited to 3 heart tricks. We will get only 2 club tricks So to make this we will need either 2 spade tricks and 2 diamond tricks or 1 spade trick and 3 diamond tricks. Or possibly we can get 3
tricks, Let's use (
,!H,!D,!C) to indicate the number of tricks. So we hope, if
don't split, to get either (2,3,2,2) or *2,2,3,2) or maybe (3,2,2,2) tricks.
One reason the math is tough is that there are many variants and, except for the opening lead, we do not control what the opponents do.
Suppose we duck at T1 and
are continued. putting us on the boar d with the A.
T3: Lead the
Q, Let us assume that Lho takes his K although he might not.
T4: another
, won in hand.
T5,6: Cash the A,J of
.
uh oh. Lho still has a
winner so if we lay another
to establish our 5th
, they get (2,0,3,0)=5 tricks. But: Lho has a lot of black cards so Rho has a lot of red cards. We can make this.
T 7,8,9: A,K and another
, throwing a
from hand. Rho is in, he can cash another
, but then must lead a
. We get 5 redtricks.
Is this double dummy? Well, sort of. We chose to throw Rho ib with a
rather than just take the
finesse. But we do know Rho has a lot of red cards. Presumably at T2 Lho folloed with the
3 to let his pard know he started with 5. But then again, he might see tis as best kept secret. If we beleive Lho started with 9 black cards then the throw-in seems right.
Playing os
at T3 seems right. The suit might be 3-3. and, if 4-2, the T might fall on the second round. And, if neither of these good things happen, then we at least have 2
tricks so we need only come up with 5 red tricks.
Will Lho take the K at T3? Maybe not. As I played it, winning the
at T1 in hand and leading a small
, it was easier to duck since the K captures only the 4. . When we lead the
Q at T3 from the board, he gets to capture a Q with his K. If he ducks we can make it, but maybe not obviously T4: small
to the 9, the T wins, he can lead a 3rd
, we are ni our hand and cash the
A, ok, so much for
but e can do the throw-in as before.
Is this the best line? Beats me. I think I like it better than the one I chose. For one thing, it works.
As I see it, we are searching for the best line of play, not the line that works as the cards lie. Dare uses pre-dealt hands. I like to shift the opponents' cards around some to see when the recommended line works and when it doesn't. Usualy I can eventually see the best line but here I am not yet sure.
